Sunday, January 1, 2017

FDA Drug Comms rigged WSJrnl

The FDA’s Rigged Drug Committees

A case study in how the agency gets the advice it wants to hear.

The Food and Drug Administration campus in Silver Spring, Md.ENLARGE
The Food and Drug Administration campus in Silver Spring, Md. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS
Among the Republican priorities in 2017 should be dismantling a culture of bureaucratic control at the Food and Drug Administration that poisons innovation and costs lives. Here’s an idea: Update part of the approval process that was patient zero for distorting data on a drug for Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
We’ve reported on the drama over eteplirsen, which FDA approved in September and is now marketed as Exondys 51 by Sarepta Therapeutics. Midlevel bureaucrats have since disparaged the therapy in public, and some insurers are denying coverage. Much of the confusion results from an April show trial known as an advisory committee meeting. A process that is supposed to provide independent advice to the FDA instead became a venue to mislead a panel of nonexperts—and the public—about the drug’s efficacy.
Advisory committees exist so FDA can solicit expert counsel, but the agency stacks panels with allies whose career currency is prestige and government funding. Such committees usually vote the way FDA wants—and then the agency tends to follow the recommendation. On eteplirsen, the panel voted 6-7 against accelerated approval after a critical FDA review, which was later overruled by agency management in a rare exception amid unusual public scrutiny.
The 13-member committee that checked out eteplirsen included: a psychiatrist, a stroke doctor and several others with no experience in Duchenne. The agency seldom invites true experts because anyone who has ever talked to a drug company is deemed financially conflicted. In rare diseases like Duchenne, that problem is more pronounced because the pool of experts can be so limited.
Yet meet Caleb Alexander, chairman of the committee. Dr. Alexander invited speakers at the meeting to state organizations they represent. He read this statement at least a dozen times but neglected to mention his own conflict of interest: Dr. Alexander has received a large FDA grant, information that is available online. The conceit is that folks like Dr. Alexander are less motivated by pecuniary interests than someone who has consulted for a company. Dr. Alexander voted against approval.
Sarepta was barely allowed to defend itself at the meeting, which allowed agency distortions to appear as fact. One example: FDA’s documents for Sarepta claim that patients “commonly maintain ambulation to older ages than is often realized, to 18 years or perhaps even older.” Yet the same materials for a Duchenne drug reviewed fewer than six months earlier say that “by age 10-14, patients become wheel chair bound.” This looks like an attempt to make Sarepta’s clinical results look less significant.
FDA’s review also relied on a chart to convince the panel that boys on the drug over time walked no better than patients who were not treated. But we’ve reviewed compelling evidence that someone manipulated the x-axis in later years to make the results look more damning for Exondys. This contentious visual was treated as gospel.
Supportive experts were relegated to the public hearing portion of the meeting for brief comments. Pediatric neurologists, the geneticist who discovered the gene for Duchenne, clinical researchers and others had to move fast through slides and data. The FDA’s lead reviewer, an eye doctor, talked for about an hour.
The nonprofit Jett Foundation collected data on falls, fatigue and other outcomes that the panel more or less ignored. These patient measures will be invaluable as rare diseases become better understood. FDA has the legal authority to incorporate patient data in decisions, but the bureaucracy never does.
At the end of the day, panelists vote on approval questions, and even here FDA tilts the outcome. The agency’s guidance says questions should have “minimal qualifiers” so as not to confuse the committee. So let’s look at one of the questions FDA asked the panel to ponder:
“Do the clinical results of the single historically-controlled study (Study 201/202) provide substantial evidence (i.e., evidence from adequate and well-controlled studies or evidence from a single highly persuasive adequate and well-controlled study that is accompanied by independent findings that substantiate efficacy) that eteplirsen is effective for the treatment of DMD?”
Are you still reading? The obfuscation led one committee member who voted no, Bruce Ovbiagele, to deliver this insight: “Based on all that I heard, the drug definitely works, but the question was framed differently.” Imagine hearing this if you are the parent of a Duchenne boy.
If FDA is going to run these committees merely to achieve a predetermined outcome, then let’s skip the exercise. Drug sponsors should at least be allowed to object to candidates for the panel and be granted time to refute the agency’s contentions, as Joseph Gulfo, executive director of the Lewis Center for Healthcare Innovation and Technology, has suggested. The panels should also include several members who have treated the disease.
These changes would return advisory committee meetings to their original purpose as an outside check on FDA bias or groupthink. If Donald Trump is serious about making government accountable to the people who pay for it, FDA is a prime candidate for reform.

Oil Prices Have a Slippery Path Upward wsj jan 1 17

Oil Prices Have a Slippery Path Upward wsj jan 1 17

Oil prices may finally have stabilized, but hurdles to further gains remain

Work at an oil refinery in Russia. Russia was among the major oil producers that struck a deal in early December to cut around 1.8 million barrels a day of crude production starting in January.ENLARGE
Work at an oil refinery in Russia. Russia was among the major oil producers that struck a deal in early December to cut around 1.8 million barrels a day of crude production starting in January. PHOTO: ANDREY RUDAKOV/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Oil prices may finally have stabilized, but hurdles to further gains remain.
After more than two years of a crude glut that drove prices to decade lows, analysts and industry executives see supply and demand of oil rebalancing next year. A deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other heavyweight producers to cut around 2% from global production in 2017 is expected to push prices close to $60 a barrel, a level not seen since the summer of 2015.
Market watchers expect prices to stay volatile, however, given OPEC members and other producers often haven’t followed through on similar agreements in the past. Higher prices may also encourage U.S. drillers to ramp up output, while a slowdown in global demand for crude could curb any rally, analysts say.
On Friday, West Texas intermediate crude closed at $53.72, up 45.03% for the year, the commodity’s best performance since 2009.
For now, industry insiders appear optimistic. “The mood has definitely turned more bullish, people are more confident that OPEC will do enough to rebalance the market in the first half of 2017,” said Adam Ritchie, a director of consulting firm Petro-Logistics SA.
That would be a welcome development for an industry that has been hit hard by lower prices. The oil-price rout has cost hundreds of thousands of jobs, strained the budgets of producers and led to delays or cancellation for dozens of multibillion-dollar projects.
Mr. Ritchie says, however, that the glut in oil stockpiles, which he estimates at around 1 billion barrels world-wide, will take a long time to drain.
“I don’t think people have fully grasped the scale of the excess inventory that has to clear, so the imbalance between supply and demand needs to be corrected dramatically and for a very long period of time,” he said.
A survey of 14 investment banks by The Wall Street Journal predicts that Brent crude, the international oil-price gauge, will average $56 a barrel in 2017. They expect West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil gauge, to average $54 a barrel in the year.
Oil prices fluctuated in 2016: Brent fell to a multiyear low of under $28 a barrel last January and struggled to breach the $50 level until the OPEC deal pushed prices higher.
One of the biggest challenges for oil prices in 2017 will be whether the countries that signed up to cut production will deliver on that agreement. OPEC members and suppliers including Russia struck a deal in early December to cut around 1.8 million barrels a day of crude starting in January.

The Year Ahead: Markets

OPEC has a poor record of sticking to supply agreements. In 17 production cuts since 1982, OPEC members have reduced output by an average of just 60% of their commitments, according to Goldman Sachs.
“Until you start to see volumes come out of the market I don’t know that you can say this is anything beyond sentiment,” said Saad Rahim, chief economist at trade house Trafigura Group Pte Ltd.
With oil prices expected to firm, increasingly efficient U.S. shale drillers might present another hurdle on the path to rebalancing.
Some analysts have called the OPEC deal a gift to U.S. producers, which are generally seen as better able than their counterparts abroad to ramp up production in a hurry when prices rise.
“The issue OPEC has is it becomes a self-defeating mechanism—if they can cut enough to raise prices, all that does is incentivize other production,” Mr. Rahim said.
The number of rigs drilling for crude in the U.S. has been rising since the summer and the additional supply from their wells is yet to hit the market due to the lag between drilling activity and production.
Citigroup estimates that if prices rise toward $60 a barrel next year, U.S. production would increase to 9.2 million barrels a day by December and to over 10 million by the end of 2018. It is currently running at around 8.8 million barrels a day.
A sustained rally in prices also could curb demand for crude. Analysts already expect 2017 global oil consumption to increase at its slowest pace in three years. That is mainly as China limits its crude purchases and the stronger dollar, which recently surged to a 14-year high against a basket of other currencies, makes crude more expensive for foreign buyers. And as motorists start to feel the price rises at the pump, demand could slow.
Even if the market clears all its hurdles to higher prices, there are few predicting a return to $100 oil. In the summer of 2015, many of the banks in the Journal’s monthly survey were predicting oil prices would rise to more than $70 a barrel this year. Now, that level doesn’t seem likely until 2018.
Write to Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com and Sarah McFarlane at sarah.mcfarlane@wsj.com

Turkish Police Hunt for Gunman in Istanbul Nightclub Terror Attack WSJrnl Jan 1 17


Turkish Police Hunt for Gunman in Istanbul Nightclub Terror Attack WSJrnl Jan 1 17

Assault killed at least 39 people, among them 15 foreigners

People react on the street outside the Istanbul nightclub where at least 39 people died in a New Year’s attack.ENLARGE
People react on the street outside the Istanbul nightclub where at least 39 people died in a New Year’s attack. PHOTO: YASIN AKGUL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Turkish police were searching for a gunman who opened fire in an Istanbul nightclub popular with international jet-setters in the early hours of New Year’s Day, killing at least 39 people and wounding dozens of others in the latest attack to rock a nation battling terrorism on multiple fronts.
The lone attacker sprayed bullets into a crowd of revelers who had come from across the Middle East and elsewhere to celebrate at the Reina, a sprawling, cosmopolitan party spot overlooking the Bosporus. Istanbul Governor Vasip Sahin called it an “act of terror.”
At least 15 of those killed were foreigners, said Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, according to state-run news agency Anadolu. In addition to Turks, the dead included citizens of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, France and Belgium, Turkish officials said.
As of Sunday evening, no group had claimed responsibility for the attack.
Over the past year, Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has been hit by attacks from Kurdish and Islamic State assailants that have killed hundreds of people.
The assaults have come as the country has waged a multipronged campaign to stamp out a Kurdish insurgency at home while intervening in Syria’s civil war to curb territorial gains by Kurds there and to back rebel groups against the Damascus government.
Turkey is also fighting Islamic State in Syria and plays a key role in the U.S.-led coalition against the extremist organization.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a statement Sunday, saying terror attacks are an attempt to create chaos, demoralize people and destabilize the country. “We will preserve our calm as a nation, standing more closely together, and we will never allow such dirty games,” he said.
The government, in what has become an increasingly routine step, has imposed a media ban on coverage of the attack, prohibiting reporting of information other than what is released by authorities. The country remains under a state of emergency imposed after an attempted coup in July.
Mehmet Gormez, chief of the religious-affairs arm of the prime minister’s office, said the New Year’s attack differed from previous terrorist acts in the country because it sought “to foment public unrest to split society based on lifestyles.”
His remarks highlight a continuing culture war between Turkey’s overwhelmingly observant majority Muslim population and a sizable portion of society that espouses a Western lifestyle that at times clashes with Islamic piety.
Under Mr. Erdogan, Turkey’s government has shifted away from a Western-facing secularism that defined its policies for decades. He has boosted the role of Islam and built ties with the Middle East. He has given religious schools a bigger role in education and levied heavy taxes on alcohol.
On Friday the religious-affairs directorate questioned why “the first hours of a new year should be turned into waste with New Year’s celebrations that belong to other cultures,” according to the transcript of a sermon posted on the directorate’s website.
Perched on the waterfront, the Reina is popular with the Ferrari-driving crowd. It can hold more than 3,000 people and houses restaurants serving food from kebabs to sushi. It can be accessed by land and sea. Some wealthy guests arrive on yachts, especially in the summer months.
Just after 1 a.m. Sunday, the gunman killed a police officer and another person on the street before entering the club and opening fire. Prime Minister Binali Yildrim said the assailant dumped his weapon and is believed to have made his escape by blending in with fleeing partygoers.
Reina owner Mehmet Kocarslan said police and the coast guard had stepped up security efforts with added patrols in the two weeks leading up to New Year’s Eve, especially along the popular strip of the Bosporus dotted with restaurants, taverns, cafes and bars that is home to the club.
“Despite all the precautions, this deplorable incident has come to pass,” he said in a statement. Reina’s entrance was covered by blue tarpaulin on Sunday as authorities investigated. A Turkish flag hung from the facade.
The U.S. consulate in Istanbul on Sunday advised Americans to “shelter in place and to limit movements to an absolute minimum.” It said the club attack showed that extremists “are continuing aggressive efforts to conduct attacks in areas where U.S. citizens and expatriates reside or frequent.”
“Tragic start to 2017,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a tweet shortly after the attack.
He was joined by U.S. President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the European Union’s foreign-policy chief, Federica Mogherini, who extended condolences to Turkey and pledged to continue working with Ankara to attempt to prevent such tragedies.
Pope Francis, in his New Year’s address, called for a coordinated global effort to fight terrorism. “I ask the Lord to sustain all men of good will to courageously roll up their sleeves to confront the plague of terrorism and this stain of blood that is covering the world with a shadow of fear,” he said.
Men lay flowers outside the Reina nightclub on Sunday after the attack. ENLARGE
Men lay flowers outside the Reina nightclub on Sunday after the attack. PHOTO: UMIT BEKTAS /REUTERS
Less than a month ago, an attack for which Kurdish separatists claimed responsibility killed at least 44 people—mostly policemen—outside a soccer stadium in Istanbul. A week later, another bombing claimed by Kurds killed 14 soldiers in the central Anatolian city of Kayseri.

TERROR IN TURKEY

Turkey has suffered a series of terror attacks over the past year. These are some of the most deadly:
  • Dec. 10: Twin bomb attack outside stadium in Istanbul kills 44 people; Kurdish militant group claims responsibility
  • Aug. 20: Bomb attack on wedding party in Gaziantep kills at least 30; Islamic State suspected
  • July 30: Thirty-five Kurdish fighters try to storm military base and are killed by Turkish army
  • June 28: Gun-and-bomb attack blamed on Islamic State on Ataturk airport, Istanbul, kills 41
  • March 13: Thirty-seven killed by Kurdish militants in suicide car bombing in Ankara
  • Feb 17: Twenty-eight die in attack on a military convoy in Ankara